Going from 10-12k priced machines to 16-20k machines will not be good long term for this industry without a substantially longer service life. Cars can get away with it because they can be used so much longer at 15k per year six years later 90k miles and still have easily half it's engine life remaining. Say an average snowmobile user will do 2000 miles per year in 6 years that sled would have 12,000 miles on it. I would not want a 2 stroke with that kind of mileage and certainly would not expect it to last six more years. With this basic math a sled will depreciate at least twice as fast as a car. With that rate of depreciation they become mostly consumables with little resale relative to cost new even if used moderately maybe 4 strokes will help with that aspect but their costs are higher as well and a lot of buyers want 2 strokes and the life cycle is only going to be so much the key will be to keep a price point where sledders can afford to replace machines with little value remaining every 4 or 5 years. At $12,000 price new and say still worth $2,000 to trade in with 8,000 miles in 4 years that's $2500 a year loss over 4 years or in 5 years and at 10,000 miles say trade in is now $1,500 that's $2,100 a year loss. Much more sustainable. Now sleds are pushing way past that price new but 2 strokes not really lasting any longer though so just ending up costing way more per year for same use.
keysersoze
The problem that also is a big factor now is the cost and hassle it is to fix, work on , and repair anything. If you need a part it’s never at a dealer and back ordered.. yep it’s the new way of doing business but is gona be just another nail in the coffin to the sport. It’s over priced and under delivered excitement ratio period! People are going to make the better decision and walk away. This is my opinion and unfortunately a dark one but it’s like many things today… it’s no longer like it used to be . Fun and practical.Yep , it’ll probably still exist but only for the the people with money to piss away and that group is small and getting smaller with the way the wind is blowing…
I think the premium models will be a bit more rare. The past several years I'd see the premium sleds more than the mid grade or lower grade sleds.
Now I'm seeing the XC's become more popular and even the SPs. It used to be rare to see these less expensive sleds so often.
Suspension design is so good many people can be satisfied on less expensive shocks. For many people the SP non adjustable shocks are just fine. There was a time where the only clicker shocks you got was the rear track shock. Then after that time the cheap sleds got really cheap shocks and you could tell. But now the SP shocks aren't cheap garbage, they are actually good. Most riders will do just fine on non adjustable shocks.
So I think the lower end sleds are way more appealing than ever, and the expensive sleds make them look even better.
Now I'm seeing the XC's become more popular and even the SPs. It used to be rare to see these less expensive sleds so often.
Suspension design is so good many people can be satisfied on less expensive shocks. For many people the SP non adjustable shocks are just fine. There was a time where the only clicker shocks you got was the rear track shock. Then after that time the cheap sleds got really cheap shocks and you could tell. But now the SP shocks aren't cheap garbage, they are actually good. Most riders will do just fine on non adjustable shocks.
So I think the lower end sleds are way more appealing than ever, and the expensive sleds make them look even better.
I think the manufacturers need to better appreciate us customers, many are not far away from giving up the sport. It'd be different if we had more snow but it is what it is. What's my incentive to Spring order? Pay $19,000 for a new 600r XRS and get stuck with a lot of features I don't even want? No thanks. Let me build a sled a-la-carte and throw in a 5 year warranty for ordering early. 5 years is more like only 6 months of actual snow on the ground so it's not asking for much.
I don’t think things will ever change much. There will always be new left over deals and special interest rates at the dealers. So new prices aren't going to go down maybe level out at least. So that leaves the used market and there is always a buyer no matter price, miles , etc. My son‘s best bud bought a 800 XRS used with 23000 kms on it. Another friend bought an 800 Switchback with 16000 kms on it just 3 months ago and so far so good. I wouldn’t even consider either of these sleds but they both paid a little under market value and are happy. So prices aren’t going to change much. Only way you get a deal is if the seller is motivated and you will still see crazy high prices.
House and rents are high... and some of them have already determined what changes they will need to endure.
I am going to be turning 58, and realize that I will retire just when SS monthly checks get the ''haircut''. With a 25% cut in the benefit, will get 30% of my ten year highest average rather than 40%. 10% of my household income being recovered with about a 3% ROI means that I have to save 3 times my household income to come out even with current SS recipients; and Medicare Part A is in trouble, while B doesn't seem to be getting any cheaper.
So the youngest generation... I don't think they are going to have the disposable income that was the norm for the last several decades. So recreational choices are going to narrow at least in some areas.
But lower MSRP (which are not the actual sale price)... risks taking room to value the trade-in. The manufacturers have to make enough to keep investors interested, the dealers need to make enough to keep them in business, and in the long run that is what is best for consumers.
As for not being tied to just building sleds... that doesn't bode well for sleds... as the Yamaha decision exposes.
I am going to be turning 58, and realize that I will retire just when SS monthly checks get the ''haircut''. With a 25% cut in the benefit, will get 30% of my ten year highest average rather than 40%. 10% of my household income being recovered with about a 3% ROI means that I have to save 3 times my household income to come out even with current SS recipients; and Medicare Part A is in trouble, while B doesn't seem to be getting any cheaper.
So the youngest generation... I don't think they are going to have the disposable income that was the norm for the last several decades. So recreational choices are going to narrow at least in some areas.
But lower MSRP (which are not the actual sale price)... risks taking room to value the trade-in. The manufacturers have to make enough to keep investors interested, the dealers need to make enough to keep them in business, and in the long run that is what is best for consumers.
As for not being tied to just building sleds... that doesn't bode well for sleds... as the Yamaha decision exposes.
I doubt that you'll see new sled prices going down any time soon. I think most people would rather buy a nice used sled instead of a no-option turd of an "economy" model. I know I did.
I don't see anything new here. This is just pre-Covid.
Terrible winters aren't new, either. I agree, the next year is going to be difficult to sell new sleds, since it was such an awful winter this year. But, the industry has survived multiple episodes like this.
Terrible winters aren't new, either. I agree, the next year is going to be difficult to sell new sleds, since it was such an awful winter this year. But, the industry has survived multiple episodes like this.
The Return to Precovid pricing is exactly what the sport needs. The pricing went crazy after 2019. Really can say that about everything not just sleds
now the prices on new dropped but the used market went with it. my buddy tried to trade his mint 600r ski doo. great price on the new, no taking the trade. local market place is overflowing
Between the price of machines (no longer affordable for the younger generations), lousy winters, and dwindling volunteer base, the future of snowmobiling is NOT looking good.
I don't see myself buying another new snowmobile; I will stick with my current strategy of low mileage units at half price.
I don't see myself buying another new snowmobile; I will stick with my current strategy of low mileage units at half price.
What he said.
I've been buying used sleds for years. Sure you have to work on them when you buy them usually but the same holds true with new anyway. And here in the "deep south" as I like to call it we just don't get the snow conditions to make buying a new one worth the big outlay of cash. That said even used ones have gotten to be more money when you want all the doo dads that fancy more expensive new machines come with. Still, I'll buy used and I'm happy with them all along the way. (except maybe for the barney 09 sled F8 that wasn't that great and was kinda boring)
I've been buying used sleds for years. Sure you have to work on them when you buy them usually but the same holds true with new anyway. And here in the "deep south" as I like to call it we just don't get the snow conditions to make buying a new one worth the big outlay of cash. That said even used ones have gotten to be more money when you want all the doo dads that fancy more expensive new machines come with. Still, I'll buy used and I'm happy with them all along the way. (except maybe for the barney 09 sled F8 that wasn't that great and was kinda boring)
i snowchecked once, and was pissed in the fall when the same sled was all over for a better price. leftovers after that. like right now, deals are awesome. figures i don't need one
The only new models that should sell welol and get the asking price are new models and a good example would be the Catalyst 858 most other new models your getting the same old technology as previously. Other models that will sell as expected are all Yamaha sleds that are going to be collectors some day and I’d through in the 25 model T Cats with the power steering again last chance. There are a few desirable models that will sell also like Polaris 4 stroke if they come out with more performance and some of Doos low end 600’s. Most everything else will be hard sell with prices high on new models and huge discounts on new leftovers selling new will be difficult. In the next few seasons riders that have what they want and own it are the lucky ones. I’m a typical miser when it comes to buying I always for the last 10 years or more have gone the nearly new used route and saved a ton of money even after I customized them to my liking. I am seriously considering a new 858 Catalyst but not ready to jump yet. I believe even these models will be availed at dealers next fall and very well could have incentives for a better deal.
I agree for most of what you say. But I do think a 25 SRX will hold its value better than most.
I don’t think we are in the same situation here in Quebec. No real deals yet on any new Cats and even used in my opinion are overpriced. With Doo and Poo just the big dealers discounting mostly leftovers everything else seems as normal. We also didn’t have as terrible winter as most.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. The OEMs need to create more entry level sleds. Make them affordable, make them cool, and make them desirable. We've seen it in the PWC industry with Sea Doo making the Spark, and Yamaha with their Jetblaster Waverunner. I bought a motorcycle this past spring and half the bikes on the floor were 650cc or less. There were high end bikes and ultra premium models, but there were tons of affordable options to get my kid into a bike. We don't have those same decisions in the sled market. We need something like the Polaris Shift models again.
They do make entry level sleds. That noticably cheaper than the premium models. But they just don't sell as much as the premium models. There's a reason why practically no one on here owns these inexpensive models. No one wants to ride a shift when for the price they could get a used machine that's going to ride better and have more adjustability and tech.
The only thing the shift has going for it was around that time a lot of people weren't on rider forward sleds. So it had a bigger appeal I think. I think the shift was an experiment that lead to the Indy models. I remember myself thinking, if only it had a nicer track, if only it had rebuild able shocks. They don't have to be adjustable, just rebuildable and able to be revalved. Well Polaris listened and gave us the INDY SP. And even put an 800 in it. That sled model still exists in the SP models. Just no 800. But you don't need an 800 when you have a 650. Today's 700. It's $14,200 MSRP and I think that's a bit too expensive, but it's the best bang for your buck performance machine. Of course they are cheaper right now. Under $12,000.
I think once Polaris retires the Pro Ride chassis sports models and ventures. $10,000 or less. The next step will be the axys chassis. That might make those sleds more exciting to buy. I do wish Polaris made a 95-100 HP option that isn't a heavy 4 stroke S4 for these sleds. But I'm not the one buying these sleds so maybe the S4 will be that engine it it will sell better than the current sports. But they won't make the sport lineup in an AXYS chassis until a new chassis comes out because they are too close to the matryx and they won't spend time making something else work with the Pro Rides. So that will be interesting when that time comes.
The only thing the shift has going for it was around that time a lot of people weren't on rider forward sleds. So it had a bigger appeal I think. I think the shift was an experiment that lead to the Indy models. I remember myself thinking, if only it had a nicer track, if only it had rebuild able shocks. They don't have to be adjustable, just rebuildable and able to be revalved. Well Polaris listened and gave us the INDY SP. And even put an 800 in it. That sled model still exists in the SP models. Just no 800. But you don't need an 800 when you have a 650. Today's 700. It's $14,200 MSRP and I think that's a bit too expensive, but it's the best bang for your buck performance machine. Of course they are cheaper right now. Under $12,000.
I think once Polaris retires the Pro Ride chassis sports models and ventures. $10,000 or less. The next step will be the axys chassis. That might make those sleds more exciting to buy. I do wish Polaris made a 95-100 HP option that isn't a heavy 4 stroke S4 for these sleds. But I'm not the one buying these sleds so maybe the S4 will be that engine it it will sell better than the current sports. But they won't make the sport lineup in an AXYS chassis until a new chassis comes out because they are too close to the matryx and they won't spend time making something else work with the Pro Rides. So that will be interesting when that time comes.
Maybe, but eventually those riders that buy a shift want the top dog sleds, and if they cost 17-24K it may not happen, I sure as hell don't want to ride a shift after sledding for 34 years. I would give it up. My current sled cost me 19k and I have another 3K into it to get it up to my spec, and ya that pisses me off, way to much money, I'm not loaded, worked 30/40 Saturday's so far this year to justify my sled habit, but I want my sled to be a top performer and that cost's more money than I want to spend, but I still do it after all these years, it is a bad ass sled I can't say it ain't!
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