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Discussion Starter #1

Forecast Discussion
Issued: Saturday, December 14, 2019 - 11:45PM
Forecaster: Brennen Perry

Lake effect snow and localized snow squalls are expected to develop east of Lake Huron and southeast of Georgian Bay early Sunday morning as the system that brought widespread snowfall to the region moves out of Ontario. At this point, the lake effect snow appears fairly disorganized which means significant accumulation isn’t expected from this event. There’s the potential for a few heavier bands of snow to develop off of Lake Huron with one developing just south of Goderich and stretch inland towards the Stratford region around the noon hour and another one further north through Kincardine and Hanover. These regions have the possibility of picking up local amounts between 6-12cm IF these bands develop. Some models show just weak lake effect snow throughout the day so all areas may stay under 6cm of accumulation. Between 2-6cm is possible for the other areas east of Lake Huron and Southeast of Georgian Bay including Barrie, Orillia and Owen Sound. Everyone else can expect less than 2cm of accumulation with Eastern Ontario seeing a centimetre or two of additional accumulation just after midnight from the exiting system.
 

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Discussion Starter #3
No need for another weather post your thread 2 below has this in it already.

Here is something we all know how to use too.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/ontario/barrie
the only thing i use the weather network for is the radar, it's highly inaccurate for my area. they cull my forecast from barrie and collingwood. our garage is in coldwater(it's far closer than barrie), it can say it's 5, get to my place it's 0 etc. for those of us who live further north and not in cities it's more of the guessimate than anything. the maps i show are snowfall, cover most of trails east of thunder bay, so people can get a rough idea without having to search out each spot. as an example, we're planning a trip to cochrane soon, it's an 8 hour drive from my place, with those maps at a glance i have a rough idea what to expect for the entire drive.

the snow is here now, it's no longer soon.
 

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FWIW, I like the maps Cheallaigh posts. I use the weather network, I like the radar, but I also like the extra forecasts from instant weather. I made my own opinion an estimates between the two. I don't have a subscription to Instant Weather, nor do i have any interest in getting a twitter account to follow them. So thank you.

Do we need 2 threads for the same thing? no... but Maps are good.
 

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Discussion Starter #5

A blast of cold air late Tuesday through Southern Ontario with strong northwesterly winds will allow for the development of snow squalls off of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay starting Tuesday evening through Wednesday and into Thursday morning.

There’s the possibility we may see the squalls become quite intense at times and if they lock into any particular region, significant snowfall accumulation can quickly occur. The exact region who could be hit the hardest is still to be determined, but basically the entire Lake Huron shoreline from Bayfield to Saugeen Shores and Southern Georgian Bay is at the highest risk of snow squalls between Tuesday and Thursday. We may see localized accumulation well over 40cm somewhere in the aforementioned region. Widespread accumulation between 15-30cm is possible elsewhere and could extend pretty far inland.

There’s still a lot to sort out with this event and things can change so be sure to check back for the very latest.
 

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Discussion Starter #6

A system tracking up the US East Coast will clip Southern Ontario with the outer bands of snowfall beginning Tuesday morning around Lake Erie and late morning to early afternoon for Eastern Ontario. The latest data suggests a more northern track with this system and as a result, increasing the potential accumulation close to the US border. It looks like the Niagara and Kingston region will see the most impact with widespread accumulation between 4-8cm. There is also the possibility that some locally heavier bands of snow may develop south of Lake Ontario around Grimsby and Stoney Creek due to the lake enhancement and pushing totals close to the 10cm mark. Other areas around Lake Erie and into Extreme Eastern Ontario along the US border can expect to see between 2-4cm of accumulation including Leamington, Hamilton and Cornwall. Elsewhere, some flurries and light snow are possible through the GTA and Ottawa region with less to the northwest through accumulation will be limited to less than 2cm. The snow will come to an end during the afternoon for the Niagara region and early evening for Eastern Ontario. This forecast doesn't include any accumulation from the snow squalls that are expected to develop Tuesday evening around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay - a separate forecast will be issued Tuesday afternoon to cover the snow squalls over the next few days.
 

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Discussion Starter #7 (Edited)



ALERTS IN EFFECT
Snow Squall Warning
Issued at 15:07 Tuesday 17 December 2019
Snow squalls tonight and Wednesday.

Snow squalls are forecast to develop tonight and persist through Wednesday night, with the most intense squalls expected during the day Wednesday. Furthermore, strong northwest winds gusting to 60 km/h will result in widespread blowing snow.

Total local snowfall amounts of 20 to 35 cm are possible by Thursday morning when the squalls are forecast to gradually weaken.
 

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Discussion Starter #8

Frigid Arctic air is expected to flood into Southern Ontario throughout the day on Wednesday and setting the stage for a very cold start on Thursday morning. The coldest temperatures will be seen in areas further north as usual with the air temperature plummeting to between -15°C to -25°C throughout Northeastern, Central and Eastern Ontario as early as Wednesday evening. It will be slightly warmer through South-central Ontario and the GTA with the temperature between -10°C to -20°C. Southwestern Ontario will be mostly unaffected by the ‘extreme’ cold with temperatures comparably much milder ranging from -5°C to -12°C. Overnight into Thursday morning, we expect the mercery to drop by a few more degrees across the region bringing temperatures in Northeastern, Central and Eastern Ontario to below -20°C to -25°C for some areas (parts of Algonquin Park into Northeastern Ontario may flirt with the -30°C mark). With the wind chill, it’ll easily feel like -30°C or colder through the aforementioned regions. For South-central Ontario and the GTA, the wind chill will make it feel like between -25°C to -30°C except for near the lakeshore where it will be slightly warmer with a wind chill closer to -20°C. Southwestern Ontario can expect it to feel like the mid to upper teens with the coldest temperatures northeast of London. Temperatures will greatly above during the day on Thursday with daytime highs into the negative single digits or low teens. Another cold night is possible on Thursday into Friday morning for Central and Eastern Ontario, but it shouldn’t be as chilly as Thursday morning.
 

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Discussion Starter #9

The squalls are really firing up southeast of Georgian Bay and east of Lake Huron just in time for the evening commute. Hwy 400 between Bradford and Barrie is moving very slow with likely near-zero visibility occurring within the strong snow squall coming off of Georgian Bay - stay home if you can!

Two main bands have developed east of Lake Huron with one stretching from Kincardine and all the way into Kitchener and the other affecting areas just northeast of London including Exeter, St. Marys and Woodstock.

Many areas already reporting between 20-40cm in the hardest hit regions. List of snowfall reports we’ve received so far as of 4:30pm:

Oro Medonte - Over 30cm (1ft+)
Brockton (near Walkerton) - 20cm
Collingwood - 14.5cm
Chesley - 45cm
New Lowell (near Angus) - ~30cm
MacTier - 10cm
Hanover - 27cm
Horseshoe Valley - 39cm (another report of 18-20cm so very location dependent)
Elmvale - 15cm
Paisley - 32cm
 

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Discussion Starter #14
https://instantweatherinc.com/forecast/icestorm-timing-son-12292019?fbclid=IwAR3H2YS9eEcSbPr45d0qd2VRjtsoR1xUmsyNZxJMdI5vForDxdu-DIy82ss



A line of heavy freezing rain has already started this afternoon around Lake Simcoe and out east towards Brockville/Kingston with many areas hovering near the freezing mark. The temperature will be a huge factor in how much of the freezing rain sticks to surfaces therefore not all areas within the ‘heavy freezing rain’ risk will see significant ice accretion as it might just come down as regular rain. The first wave of precipitation will continue to the north throughout the late afternoon and evening although there are some indications that the band might lose some intensity from earlier in the day. Areas like Huntsville, Haliburton, Bancroft and Smiths Falls will certainly see some freezing rain, but the exact intensity is questionable and might only come down as drizzle or light freezing rain. Heavy rainfall will continue throughout the GTA and Niagara region with lighter rain in Southwestern Ontario who saw the heavy rain earlier today. Areas along the Quebec border including Ottawa will see ice pellets or snow with a slight risk of freezing rain.



Overnight into Monday morning, we’ll see the second wave of precipitation move across Southern Ontario with heavy freezing rain stretching from Georgian Bay and east through Bancroft and towards Brockville. Areas that saw freezing rain during the evening on Sunday such as Barrie, Durham and areas north of Lake Ontario will begin to slowly switch over to rain as temperatures slowly rise above the freezing mark. At this point, the Ottawa valley and areas around the Quebec border will continue to see ice pellets although the risk of freezing rain will increase early Monday morning. Very heavy rain is expected overnight for Southwestern Ontario and the GTA/Niagara region - the Dundalk Highlands (Orangeville etc.) will be slightly colder so the risk for heavy freezing rain will remain until late Monday morning.

NOTE: Strong wind gusts are expected through Central and Eastern Ontario (along with Southwestern Ontario) starting around 2 am and increasing throughout the morning. The gusts may reach between 70-90km/h (locally 90+km/h) by mid-morning and combined with the heavy ice accretion will likely result in power outages.



The heavy band of freezing rain will slowly move towards the north as the temperature slowly warms up so we expect Ottawa, Renfrew and Pembroke to begin to see the ice pellets transition over to freezing rain, especially later in the morning and early in the afternoon. Those to the south including areas east of Georgian Bay and down through the Tweed/Belleville/Kingston will switch from freezing rain to regular rain. Heavy rain will be present in areas around Lake Simcoe and along the Lake Ontario shoreline - scattered showers will also continue in Southwestern Ontario, but most of the precipitation will have moved to the northeast. The potential for ice pellets will be contained in a small zone north of North Bay.



The most intense part of the storm will have moved out of our region during the afternoon on Monday with freezing rain lingering through northern sections of Eastern Ontario. Northeastern Ontario will begin to switch over to snow as colder temperatures start to flood into the region. Drizzle or light rain will continue for other areas above the freezing mark although it is expected to transition to flurries late Monday evening as temperatures drop back below freezing.

bundle up and get prepped for those who might get hit the worst.

personally i'm just happy that it's not north or west winds, i'd be flooding.

stay safe.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
i'm already seeing some reports of power outages...



Issued: Sunday, December 29, 2019 - 8:15PM
Forecaster: Brennen Perry

Heavy freezing rain is expected to continue overnight and into Monday afternoon causing significant ice accretion on trees and power lines. This amount of freezing rain would normally cause some power outages on its own with the ice accretion weighing down tree branches and cause them to fall onto power lines. When combined with 60-80km/h (locally 80-100km/h) wind gusts that are expected to develop early Monday morning, this will increase the power outage potential substantially. Widespread outages are expected in the Smiths Falls, Bancroft and Haliburton area where the most ice accretion is expected along with Northeastern Ontario including Elliot Lake, Espanola and Sudbury.

Other areas through Central and Eastern Ontario are likely to see some power outages stretching from eastern sections of Muskoka towards Bancroft. The higher elevations of the Dundalk Highlands including Orangeville and Shelburne is also likely to see power outages from the wind and ice combination. Elsewhere, power outages are possible for the rest of Eastern and Central Ontario including the Ottawa Valley and areas around Lake Simcoe. Strong wind gusts over 90km/h are possible around Lake Huron which could also lead to some isolated power outages. Conditions will improve later during the day on Monday although the earlier power outages could last days, especially in more rural regions where the power lines are surrounded by trees and harder for power crews to reach.
 

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Woke up to one hell of a wind here in Scarberia can only imagine the damage those are doing in areas hit with heavy freezing rain.
Be safe out there.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
Woke up to one hell of a wind here in Scarberia can only imagine the damage those are doing in areas hit with heavy freezing rain.
Be safe out there.
mark was going to go to the garage and do the end of the month paperwork/bank run today etc, i asked him not to. just having the plow on our dirt road, fucking idiots, now we have a layer of compacted and zambonied ice with water on top(just heard his brakes screaming at the beginning of our road, seems he had trouble stopping). i'm not even going to try getting near my suv(truck and trailer are covered in ice and not getting disconnected right now lol), but so far amazingly enough we haven't lost power!

orangeville did, they sure called some of those areas.
 

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Discussion Starter #18

Issued: Monday, December 30, 2019 - 2:30PM
Forecaster: Brennen Perry

The system that brought an ice storm to parts of Eastern, Central and Northeastern Ontario in the past 24-36 hours will continue to affect all of Southern and Northeastern Ontario into 2020. While many areas throughout Southwestern Ontario and into the Golden Horseshoe saw temperatures soar into the mid to upper single digits and setting some records, that will quickly change later today as temperatures return to below the freezing mark. A strengthening low-pressure system will stall out over Northern Ontario and push cold air back into Southern Ontario starting this evening. This system will also bring ‘wrap-around’ snow with some lake enhancement from Georgian Bay and Lake Huron adding some additional moisture to the mix.

We’ll begin to see the ongoing rain and freezing rain begin to transition over to snow late this afternoon starting with Northeastern Ontario. By the evening, Central and Eastern Ontario will see some wet snow and flurries although it’ll be quite light aside from a small zone east of Ottawa that could see a few hours of heavy snow. We don’t expect widespread snowfall to affect our region until after midnight as a push of moisture moves in from Michigan with some enhancement from Lake Huron. Southwestern Ontario will be the first to be impacted with light to moderate snowfall spreading eastward throughout the morning. The snow will continue for much of the day on New Year's Eve, but it looks to clear up for most areas by the evening just in time for the celebrations as we ring in 2020. Some parts of the ‘snowbelt’ mainly east of Lake Huron and east/southeast of Georgian Bay could see lingering snow or weak snow squalls continue past midnight and into 2020. All snow should finally come to an end Wednesday early evening.

Total accumulation for Southern Ontario over the next 48 hours will generally range from 6-12cm with locally higher pockets up to 15cm throughout Central, Eastern and Southwestern Ontario. A few areas such as directly east of Lake Huron and south of Georgian Bay along with that small zone in Extreme Eastern Ontario could pick up as much as 12-20cm thanks to lake enhancement (excluding Eastern Ontario where the 12+cm accumulation is due to a locally heavier band late Monday). Less snow is expected closer to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with 2-6cm of accumulation away from the Lake Ontario shoreline and less than 2cm of accumulation near the lakeshore.



For Northeastern Ontario, the snowfall is already ongoing or will transition from ice pellets/freezing rain by late this afternoon. Heavy snowfall accumulation is expected this evening although it will become less intense overnight. Scattered snow with locally heavier pockets will continue throughout Tuesday before moving out of the region by the evening. Most areas will also see between 6-12cm of accumulation by Wednesday morning although higher amounts east of Lake Superior are expected with lake enhancement during this event. A small zone stretching from Wawa to Hearst could pick up over 20cm of accumulation with surrounding regions seeing between 12-20cm including Sault Ste. Marie, Kapuskasing, Elliot Lake and Sudbury. Northwestern Ontario will see substantially less snow so we haven’t produced a map for that region.
 

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Discussion Starter #19


Issued: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 - 12:35AM
Forecaster: Brennen Perry

Scattered lake effect snow and localized snow squalls will continue east of Georgian Bay and Lake Huron through the overnight and into Wednesday morning. The heaviest snow will be mostly contained to the Bracebridge/Gravenhurst area and the higher elevations in Grey County. Those areas could see between 2-6cm by the end of Wednesday although some a few locations may see as much as 10cm in the stronger lake effect activity. The rest of Southern Ontario has the risk of seeing some scattered flurries into Monday evening, but accumulation will be limited to maybe 2cm at most. The squalls and lake effect activity will begin to substantially weaken during the afternoon and taper off by the early evening.
 

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Discussion Starter #20


A close call as a system is expected to stay stateside for the most part on Saturday although parts of Southern Ontario can expect light snowfall starting Saturday morning and lasting into the afternoon. The bigger impacts will be felt in areas along the eastern border with New York including the Niagara region and along the St. Lawrence River. These areas can expect between 2-6cm of total snowfall accumulation with less to the northwest as you get away from the US border. Unorganized lake effect snow may develop east of Lake Huron and South of Georgian Bay during the afternoon and continue past the midnight hour into Sunday. The lake effect snow isn’t expected to be particularly strong so total accumulation by midnight should be limited to around 2-6cm with another 2-6cm after midnight into Sunday morning. A separate outlook will be issued for the additional snowfall on Sunday.
 
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