[rob]

Upper elevations are warmer than the valleys this morning. 41 here and 34 on top of Mt Washington. Also don't know if everyone here knows about my weather page at: http://www.robertlyonsphotography.com/webcam/index.php

Next few days look really bad.. They are starting to hint at a chance of snow sun night into monday, we'll have to see. Things should be a soggy mess by then

======================================

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWER DEW POINTS IS RESULTING IN THE ATMOSPHERE
NEEDING TO MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AND THUS
MENTION PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING ALL AREAS AND
WITH LATER TIMING OF PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN VERMONT...SHOULD NOT
BE A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WILL MENTION CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF THE PRECIPITATION TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS STRENGTHEN OVER THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ENHANCE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE ONLY FALLEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
TODAY AS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS PERSIST OVER
THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING
OFF. AREA TRIES TO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND IT APPEARS SOUTH
CENTRAL VERMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AND COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S. SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
COLDER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO GET INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH
DECREASING MOISTURE...THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE INTERESTING
WITH UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO GET ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS AND TRACKING INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND BACK INTO
OUR AREA AND COLD AIR MAY BE IN PLACE TO HAVE SOME SNOW DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL JUST MENTION A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT ALL AREAS FOR NOW...BUT SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND THUS
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASON NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

 

[Rocketdog]

Wow! Rob, your web site is fantastic. Spectacular webcam photos of the wildlife, if you ever get the chance pm me the type of camera you use (in between all the other shit you have to do. Great job! Thanks for sharing that. :beerchug:

 

[rob]

Wow! Rob, your web site is fantastic. Spectacular webcam photos of the wildlife, if you ever get the chance pm me the type of camera you use (in between all the other shit you have to do. Great job! Thanks for sharing that. :beerchug:[/b]

the pics on the weatherpage are all screen captures from the webcam.

 

[tonyvt]

Joshua Fox has recently started writing a weather blog and offers forecasts for the Mad River area. He is forecasting a possibility of 1-2 feet of snow between Sunday night and Wednesday. Looks like the weekend of the 13th-14th might be a tough call.

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/

 

[tundrafreak]

Thanks for the link. Joshua's blog very eloquently forcasts it can go either way. But whether its written straight up like the National Weather report or all dressed up in the blog, its NOT in ANY outside winter sports enthusiast favor! :banghead: My biggest challenge this weekend is to stay optimistic. Hang tough fellow HCS'rs!

 

[rob]

50 here this morning. last night's low was 45.

this morning's update from the NWS:
==================

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
441 AM EST SAT JAN 6 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTREMELY MILD AND UNUSUAL WX CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN TO
MORE REASONABLE...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL CONDS RETURN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP PLACES LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH SEMI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. EXTREMELY MILD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
...WITH AREA WIDE READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOW AND MID 50S. WIDESPREAD
RAFL HAS OCCURRED W/AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL FEATURE. EXCELLENT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT AND MID LVL FGEN...COMBINED WITH LER OF
DEPARTING UPPER JET ACROSS SC CANADA HAS PROVIDED IMPETUS TO
PCPN...AND WIDESPREAD AMNTS OF BTWN 0.75 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT
FROM THESE FEATURES. IN FACT...YESTERDAY EVENING/S ALB SOUNDING
INDICATIVE OF HOW UNUSUAL THE AIRMASS IS...WITH A PWAT 1.25
INCHES...OR IN EXCESS OF 400 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND A FREEZING
LEVEL NEAR 10 KFT! AS A RESULT...WILL HOIST FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING (SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).

AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NE THROUGH THE SLV LATER THIS
MORNING...PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT EVIDENT IN MODELS AND CURRENT WV
IMAGER SHOULD PUSH QUICKLY INTO AREA...QUICKLY SHUTTING OFF PCPN.
WILL THUS OFFER HIGHEST THREAT OF RAFL THIS MORNING...AND LEAVE MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON DRY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SCT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NRN LOCALES. OTHER NOTABLE WX TODAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. RECORD...OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS TO BE SET OR
APPROACHED AT MANY SITES...THOUGH ALL TIME JANUARY HIGHS LOOK SAFE
FOR NOW. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS SC CANADA
TO PUSH QUICKLY ACROSS AREA. AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT ONLY MARGINALLY
COOLER...SO NOT LOOKING AT A DRASTIC COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY
ATTM...THOUGH AT LEAST SOMEWHAT MORE REASONABLE. FAIRLY WELL
MIXED POST-FRONTAL BNDRY LYR AND DECENT 925-850 NW FLOW SHOULD
ARGUE FOR SOME ENHANCED GUSTINESS LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 EXPECTED.

SOME LINGERING NRN MTN -SHRASN/-SHSN ACTIVITY TO WANE LATER THIS
EVENING LEAVING GENERALLY PC AND DRY CONDS OVERNIGHT AS MEAN HIGH
PRESSURE AT SFC/ALOFT BRIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS REGION. THIS HIGH TO
PLAY DOMINATE ROLE IN SUNDAY/S WX...WITH AMPLE SUN...AND A
CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPS...THOUGH READINGS SOME 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW TODAY/S VALUES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WX BECOMES MORE INTERESTING AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST SUNDAY TRACKS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW COAST BY MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD PCPN OCCURRING ACROSS THE FA AGAIN BY LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO PORTIONS OF MONDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE AND
MOS GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF PCPN FIELD SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY CENTRAL/NORTH AND CATEGORICAL
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AVBL SOUNDING PROFILES AS WELL AS LL THICKNESS
SCHEMES WOULD SUGGEST RAIN AND/OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PROFILES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST HOWEVER...AND 2M TEMP PROFILES WOULD
SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN CHVLY...AND RAIN/SNOW ELSEWHERE. IN ANY
EVENT...PTYPE WILL LIKELY BE A CHALLENGE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED FCST ATTM. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE AND ENSEMBLE FCST
WOULD OFFER A SEASONALLY COOL AIRMASS AND A CHC OF MAINLY NRN SHSN
ACTIVITY TUE INTO PERHAPS EARLY WED BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES
ACROSS AREA BY LATER WED INTO THU. AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND...WITH NEXT CHC OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN OCCURRING BY LATER FRIDAY
AND ESP BY SAT.
&&

 

[ct_skidoo2]

Can't catch a break this winter! :tumbleweed:

 

[skifreek]

its fucking almost 70 here in central ct.... this is some serious bullshit.

im sure our place up in n danville is in the near 60's. :face_crash:

 

[rob]

sunday morning update. Looks like 1-4 slushy inches tonight-tomorrow, and then more mixed/rain next week. in other words, more of the same.
====================================

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
537 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
QUICK MORNING UPDATE JUST TO REFLECT MORE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING CENTRAL/NORTH BEFORE INCREASING SUN THIS AFTERNOON. AVBL
MODEL SOUNDING/RH FIELDS NOT PICKING UP ON MID LVL STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL LEAN INITIALLY TOWARDS
LATEST LAPS CLOUD FIELDS AND BLEND W/AFTERNOON SKY COVER
GRIDS/WORDING. OTW NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007/

SYNOPSIS...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.
BY TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND CHCS OF PCPN WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE AS LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST STATES PUSHES QUICKLY NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. A VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND/OR SLEET ACROSS ERN VT...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE BY LATER MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERAL SHORT TERM FCST REMAINS ON TRACK ATTM...AS LATEST
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLNS STILL ADVERTISING A SIMILAR SCENARIO
OVER NEXT 48 HOURS. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY UNDER LIGHT WIND REGIME AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPS FROM
THE U30S TO THE MID 40S UNDER INCREASING SUNSHINE. BY TONIGHT...SFC
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TO RIDE NORTHEAST TOWARDS WRN NY
STATE BY 12Z MONDAY...AND CONTINUE MOVING NE INTO THE SLV DURING THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...LATEST 1000-850 THICKNESS/850 HPA
TEMP...AND AVBL FCST SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER
DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY. INITIAL COLUMNAR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW MIXED PTYPE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
OF SEEING ACCUM SNOW AND SLEET APPEARS TO OCCUR ACROSS ERN
VERMONT...WHERE 1 TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...OVERRIDING
STRENGTH OF WARMING ALOFT AND GENERALLY MILDER SFC TEMPS SHOULD HOLD
DEGREE OF MIXED PCPN DOWN SOMEWHAT...AND CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN
LIKELY EARLIER DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON...WARM NOSE/DRY SLOT PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS ENTIRE FA
WITH REMAINING PCPN BECOMING MORE SCT/SHOWERY IN NATURE AND ALL
LIQUID AS TEMPS CLIMB ABV FREEZING ALL REMAINING AREAS. OTHER
CONCERN DURING MONDAY MORNING WILL BE POTL STRONG SERLY WINDS
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAVORED DOWNSLOPING REGIONS
ALONG THE WESTERN GREEN MTN SPINE. WILL OFFER BREEZY TO WINDY CONDS
MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING...WITH FAVORED GAP WIND LOCALES SEEING
POTL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS.

BY MONDAY EVENING...AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH QUICKLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SCT
SHRA AND/OR SHSN ACTIVITY AS BROAD CAA COMMENCES. OF CONCERN...AND
POTENTIALLY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WX WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG
AND GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS. LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES SHOWING
POSSBL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT FOR APPROXIMATELY 6-9 HOURS DURING
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE
DACKS/GREENS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
ATTM...AND WILL LIMIT GUSTS TO 45KT... THOUGH POTL FOR HIGHER
SPEEDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSBL AND ADVISORIES/WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDRESSED ON FUTURE SHIFTS IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

BY TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING SHSN ACTIVITY TO END ACROSS MTN
LOCALES...LEAVING GENERALLY MC/PC CONDS AND COOLER TEMPS IN THE 30S.
SOME INDICATION OF A DECENT LK EFFECT SNOW BAND SETTING UP OFF LK
ONTARIO...THOUGH MARGINAL BNDRY LYY TEMPS AND MEAN WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY SHOULD LIMIT AREAL SHSN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN SLV/WRN DACKS
NORTH OF RTE 3.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST ATTM. GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME UNDER MORE SEASONABLE TEMP
REGIME...THEN INCREASING CHCS OF PRECIP BY FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS AFFECT REGION. ONCE AGAIN...MID LEVEL TEMPS TO BE
QUITE MILD ACROSS AREA...THUS ADDL MIXED PTYPE APPEARS LIKELY.

 

[rob]

fro what it's worth, wxrisk is going the other way and forecasting cold and snow for next weekend. They can't both be right, will be interesting to see how it works out. At least it's something to hope for.

http://www.wxrisk.com/

 

[Rocketdog]

I got 28 here on the hill in IP and a slight dusting of snow. I refuse to give up on the hope for snow! So come on everyone keep doing snow dances it's bound to snow sometime. :beerchug:

 

[ct_skidoo2]

You bet - still have end of Jan, Feb and March..... :div20:

 

[rob]

we got less than an inch of snow here before it changed to freezing rain.

Good new is it really is starting to look like a pattern change may happen toward the end of the month.
=======================================

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
455 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK QUICKLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TODAY...AND INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND
BREZZY TO WINDY CONDS WILL RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS...A
GRADUAL RETURN TO COOLER WX IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK...WITH ON AND
OFF CHCS OF LIGHT SHSN ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. MORE
UNSETTLED WINTER-LIKE CONDS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
WIDE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES LIKELY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE WX DAY IN STORE FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AS AMPLE RAFL...MIXED
PCPN...AND WIND AFFECT AREA. WIDESPREAD RAFL CONTINUES TO PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AIDED BY DECENT QG FORCING...JET
DYNAMICS AND SURGE OF HIGH PWATS RIDING NORTHEAST FROM SERN STATES.
EXPECTED RAPID MOVEMENT OF PCPN FIELD TO CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...WITH STEADIER RAFL TAPERING TO SCT -SHRAS FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DECENT LOW LVL SERLIES
TO CONTINUE AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN OF VT/NY THROUGH MID MORNING
W/POTL GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES. AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
PUSHES NORTH OF REGION LATER TODAY...SFC COLD TO RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS AREA. WELL MIXED POST FRONTAL PBL TO TAP STRONGER WSW
ALOFT...AND LEAD TO A RETURN OF ENHANCED GUSTINESS FROM MID
AFTERNOON ON ACROSS MUCH OF NRN NY AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF VT. GUSTS
AGAIN TO APPROACH 50 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES...THOUGH ALL AREAS TO
POTENTIALLY SEE GUST MAXES TO 40 MPH.

ANY SCT -SHRASN AND/OR HIGHER ELEV SHSN TO TREND TO ALL SHSN
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NRN MTNS AS DECENT CAA RETURNS IN EARNEST. ONLY
MINOR ACCUM EXPECTED AT BEST...MAINLY ACROSS WRN DACKS WHERE
MARGINAL LAKE ONTARIO LAKE PLUME TO DEVELOP.

AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED AS NERN STATES REMAIN
UNDER BROAD TROUGHINESS AND HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES SLOWLY FALL. BEST
CHCS OF ADDL SHSN ACTIVITY TO OCCUR BY LATER TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
ADDL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHGS TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST ATTM. GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY
CONDS EXPECTED DURING THU/FRI TIME FRAME AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DRIFTS SLOWLY OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
TEMPS TO RUN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
AFTERWARD...MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SAGGING A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG BNDRY IN PROGRESSIVE SW FLOW ALOFT. TIMING OF
FEATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST. OF MORE CONFIDENCE WILL BE A
RETURN TO MORE INCLEMENT CONDS...WITH A VARIETY OF PTYPES AND
TEMPERATURE RANGES BY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

OF NOTE...PAST FEW DAYS...ENSEMBLE FCSTS INDICATE A STRONG TENDENCY
FOR A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NERN CONUS BEYOND
DAY 7. THE AO...WHICH HAS BEEN SO ANOMALOUSLY POSITIVE SO FAR THIS
WINTER...TO LIKELY TREND SHARPLY NEGATIVE BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
INDEED...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LONGER TERM OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN CORE OF COLDER ARCTIC AIR
BREAKING OFF AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...AND CROSS POLAR FLOW BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THUS A MARKED TREND TOWARDS
MUCH COLDER WX IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY DAY 8 AND BEYOND.

 

[one ton fun]

Man no snow in the extended forecast! This sucks! Oh well i guess one way of looking at is that my sled will be that much newer next year. Pray for snow!

 

[dgree]

You know I've been hearing now "much colder next week" for the past 3 weeks. Every week goes bye and the cold weather never seems to get here. I've been hearing "Oh the jet stream is changing from a westerly flow to a northwest flow" Wrong again.

Well there goes all the theory's about bees nest, pine cones, Squirrels tail size and all the rest. Its just a plain old sucky warm winter! Again...

 

[barahk]

no more updates? the boss man must be missing in action? ttt any ways

 

[1madcat]

Special Weather Statement Today...

300 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2007

...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR WINTER WEATHER EVENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A COLD HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC SUNDAY
AND ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS...COMBINED WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT ASHORE BY THE APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING.

 

[tonyvt]

It could be waist deep by Tuesday. :beerchug:

 

[Mr.Freeze]

If it is I'm taking a mental health day :snowfall:

 

[jutter9784500ss]

unfortunely doesn't sound like it's gonna be much of a strom from the news and forecasts i have heard but hopefully their wrong