CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE COME AROUND...NEXT STORM THE 17TH..ONE POSSIBLE THE 20TH...
There is no doubt in my mind that we are going into a stormy pattern and a pattern that will yield plenty of snow. It really has been an extreme weather pattern, and if you recall, earlier in the winter I talked about how the extreme warm and cold will combine to produce wild storms. I think this week has shown just how wild and dangerous the weather can be when you have extreme air masses running amok.
I will have a longer post and updated snow map after lunch, once I get back from my trip to Altoona.
From what I have seen so far, the models seem to be in agreement with a storm that runs up along the coast about 100 miles or so off of the coast which gives the I-95 corridor folks the first chance at snow. Speaking of snow, the upper-level low coming across the Great Lakes will give folks across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley widespread light snow and flurries on Sunday night through Tuesday. It's possible that many areas end up with 1-3 inches of snow on the ground in those areas.
Back to the coastal, my confidence level on the storm and the storm map issued yesterday is increasing now. The models have come into a agreement on the track, and now it's time to look at the details of the storm. A couple of issues that need to be resolved today. Who will get rain, who will get a mix and who will get the big snow. Right now it looks like the Philly to Boston line get a good 6-inch snow with up to 8-10 inches within that zone. Baltimore and Washington should get snow, but I am concerned about the boundary layer temperatures being a little on the warm side. New England obviously should get a major snowstorm, and areas north and west of New York City will get hit hard by snow as well.
After this storm, we are not done yet, we have a storm coming through on Thursday and next weekend, both of which can be big snowmakers...
If you get the chance, please check out our new forums at
http://forums.accuweather.com . There are a lot of great ideas and snow maps posted on the forum.