Hello! I am putting my neck out here because it is so early.....but many computer model runs have been progging a developing storm that would favor snow for most if not all of Vermont. Also, we are looking at some very cold air on the way starting late this week through the weekend. Snow should start to overspread VT Sunday Night and last through Monday Afternoon 12-3-07. Low pressure coming across PA will jump to the coast and deepen rapidly. If the cold air is stronger than predicted...Northern VT may not get much.....but that is not the likely scenario right now. My early estimate is 5" to 10" statewide. Highest totals in Southern VT. I will update this as we get closer. Again, it is early....but I wanted to share this possibility. Click back for updates! -Gil

There. I think I picked every fitting smiley we have here.

I'm supposed to get my sled back from the dealer on Saturday.

Click to view attachment

I just logged on to see if Gil would give us a guess at early next week, and I see this thread....nice work. You're not sticking your neck out on this forum, because EVERYONE here knows that there are too many variables to nail a weather event every time, RIGHT?

lol...."it's gonna snow......or not.....we're sure of it!".....

is this storm going to hit CT at all ?

^^^^^^^^
I heard possable measurable SNOW Sunday night into most of Monday.

Lets hope. Pray for snow.

And to think the snow would have to sit there for OVER 2 weeks before anyone can ever ride on it....

Oh well - let it SNOW!!

Is the ground froze up yet in the NEK???? Is there ice on the lakes at all??? Even a little??? I miss the camera from the top of the Clyde River. Does anybody know the status of that camera?? Will it be working this winter? Sorry for all the questions.

The ground is definitly not frozen, not even a little. We have about 8" of snow on the ground now and its acting like an insulator. Open wind blown fields may have a chance of freezing first.

Couldn't help ya on the camera question??? Rob used to have a seperate site with a camera shot, but don't know if its stiil running and don't remember how to get there?

Its amazing how the models havnt waffled much, YET. See how this looks friday. Then I will get excited.

Funny you should say that....this morning's 7AM run is speeding it up and tracking it over Connecticut. Snow starts during the Afternoon on Sunday in Vermont and lingers into Monday. Still looks like good snow statewide. If it tracks a bit more North...there will be mixing issues along Southern Vermont.

well then I hope it doesn't go north!

As for frozen ground, in the woodford area it was starting to set up nicely until we got a full day of rain yesterday. My yard has been hard for a week, but is now soggy again.

But... that wet ground will set up nicely if it turns cold for a couple days before it snows, which looks like will be the case. My only other concern is that all this recent rain will probably mean that water bars will remain open longer, but we've got 2 more weeks before that becomes a concern.

Whats it showing for low / high temps??? I'm sure its "vast-ly" differant between North, South, East West.... We could use a week of deep freezen cold weather.

Oh ya on a lighter note, just talked to some local farmers and they have 2 weeks to empty there shit pits so you know what that means. Nothing better than smelling "Vermont Perfume" as your riding....em. emm good...

If the cold is strong enough end of this week, it might just keep the low re developing off the coast, WHERE IT BELONGS

BTW, a mix isnt a bad thing early in the season. A icy, sleet and snow can make for a good solid base, much better than a bunch of powder that wont pack down too well.

for anyone interested, robs weathercam Is back up and running

http://www.robertlyonsphotography.com/webcam/index.php

Do I see tracks in the background?

truck tracks

Any ideas about snow Old Forge New York area around the end of next week??? I'm heading up for the shoot-out and am wondering if there will be snow like last year. Man do I hope so!!!!

Aahh well they're tracks on snow, so we're getting close.

Ill have my fingers crossed!

It's not an area I focus on....but it looks like a BIG Lake Effect Week next week with strong NW Winds and cold temps!

A quick peek at Late Tuesday Night data...........Start Time: Sunday Midday - Afternoon in Vermont. It again is tending warmer and a bit faster. Still an accumulating snow event for the whole state. Southern 1/4th of the state looks to go over to sleet and freezing rain (perhaps all rain?) for a good part of the event after 4" to 6". For Extreme Northern Vt. - NEK Mainly snow 10" in places possible at this early point.....especially Southern-South Eastern Facing Slopes of higher terrain. Will try to update Wednesday! -Gil

Gil, I hope we get some good riding snow for opening weekend. I would like to ride out of our new camp in Bloomfield. But also still would like the opening day ride with BT. down in Woodford. Lets Hope for SNOW.

Gil, I want to say thanks again for sharing your proffesional info with us. We are very fortunate to have someone with your experience on this board with us who shares our passions, snowmobiling and storms !!!!! I look forward to your posts. 800X xp this year, that should be a hoot.....

Mhmm, how many other places have their own weather guy?

Thanks All! Here is an update ....per newer data. My eyes rolled out on the desk. I still expect a changeover to ice/rain Southern VT. That will keep totals lower there......however, look at Central - Northern amounts!!! Keep in mind this includes some snow showers today....it is a running total through Monday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I may have to up my 10" prediction for the NEK....especially higher terrain.....12"+????

Looks like a little more coastal development on the GFS, hopefully more cold air. I need the 850mb low to go up the CT River Valley for our area not to get shadowed.

It is looking much better for NNE than it did last night, coastal reform might keep the cold air in place for up there,..ahhh, but we still have 16 days till opening day!!%^&&**##!!! Hows your 'future cast' thoughts there, are you on board with the warmistas after the 10th of Dec???

Nice, I hope we get a bunch!

Hmm, Models a bit closer to what I said back on the 27th. Tough to have a storm charge straight into a dome of fresh, arctic air over the lakes this time of year.

Looks like I can stop getting excited. It looks like the accumulation moved way too far north.

Thanks for the update Gil!
Maybe we will get to ride sooner than we thought this year.

NEW DATA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT....Still looking for some Sleet in the Southern part of the state....but there is a slightly colder trend.....that translates to more snow statewide. 4" to 6" extreme South.I am now going 15" North...especially high terrain! Look at the map for the GFS snow forecast through Monday!Holy SNOW!

Models seem to be holding the cold pattern well into past the mid point of DEC., this snow will stay, but be of the fluffy variety it appears. Another chance of a storm come about the 5th-6th timeframe. It may very well be the best start to the season in years and years. I only hope the la-nina doesnt slam a ridge at us in late Dec. I was out in the Barn last night working on the sleds, getting them ready for a workout come opening day. Looks like I will be up riding for the week of the 17th,...man thats soooo cool!!

The local weather station (Channel 10 out of Albany NY) is calling for mostly snow right now. He mentioned this morning that it'll start as snow, and could turn to freezing rain south of Albany, but stay snow to the north, then back to all snow. They're not releasing accumulation predictions yet, but they should be out sometime today.

I'm starting to get really excited! The F6 is calling my name...

Thanks for the update Gil!

HERE IS THE LATEST.Models are struggling with secondary low that is forecast to develop near Rhode Island - Cape Cod area. It now looks slower and colder for the scenario. It looks HUGE for the entire state through Monday Afternoon! -Gil

Awesome Gil....welp I better go and rake the leaves that I have been putting off all fall ...I think this snow is here to stay!!! Hopefully will not see my ground until about April 16! That model reminds of the one you posted for the Valentines Day storm!!! See you on the trails real soon!!!!

It just keeps getting better...I'm so excited for what seems to be a great start to the season!

Uh... holy crap.

Sweeeeeeetttt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Let it snow!!!

Man I hope we get pounded, my sled has less than a mile on it and I'm getting an itchy finger.

This better not be an december fools joke...

It's for real!!!!!!!!! Could be something else around Thursday next week!!!!! -Gil

Hey Gil, How does it look after the storm..Will it be cold enough for the snow to stick around till the 16th?

It may try to warm mid month a bit....but it looks like some more snow around late week next week with a "Clipper" system! -Gil

Gil, Where can I get a Dopplar 8000 Radar snow track weather system with optional snow depth meter and trail condtion sensors? LET IT SNOW!!! Keep up the good work SAM

EBAY